Vattenfall - Abatement potential

Abatement potential for the forestry sector

The abatement potential within the sector derives from a reduction in deforestation and an increase in forestation. Additional to the BAU improvements, the abatement potential to 2030 from reducing tropical deforestation is approximately 3.3 GtCO₂/year. This calculation is based on the maximum realistic realization rates of 75% for Latin America, 50% for Africa and 25% for Asia. The abatement potential from forestation has a potential to absorb 3.5 GtCO₂/year by 2030, with more than 90% of this potential occurring on unused degraded forestry land in Africa and South America. Successful examples of countries that have succeeded in increasing net national forest cover, such as India and Costa Rica, implies that committed governments can halt tropical deforestation rates and encourage reforestation. The new technology with satellite and field-based methods allow for measurement of net forestry changes, enabling international compensation for countries that increase net forest cover relative to BAU. The abatement potential within the sector derives from a reduction in deforestation and an increase in forestation.

Reduced deforestation

Reduced deforestation means the maintenance of existing stocks of trees and the proportion of forest products currently in use, by reducing deforestation, increase forest protection and the use of forest management. One mechanism include the maintenance of untouched natural forests through the implementation of sustainable ‘forest management’, which certifies forests and allows controlled harvesting, but with sufficient time lag to allow deforested areas to regenerate naturally. The primary advantage is that untouched forest areas contain about twice as much carbon as secondary forests while some disadvantages include the lack of a proved method to measure deforestation, the lack of the required institutional mechanisms and the high opportunity costs for the local economy. The abatement potential until 2030 from a reduction in deforestation is approximately 3.3 GtCO₂/year. Africa has an abatement potential of 0.8 GtCO₂e from avoided deforestation, South America 1.9 GtCO₂e and Asia 0.6 GtCO₂e with the underlying realization rates of 75% for South America, 50% for Africa and 25% for Asia. Commercial timber extraction is the key driver for deforestation in Asia, to feed the domestic and international market. In South America, the key cause for deforestation is the cultivation of crops and the demand for grazing land for cattle. Approximately 75% of the Amazon lack land titles and the lack of land titles is a major cause of deforestation since the land is open to occupation by anyone who burns down the forest and claims it. In Africa deforestation is driven by the demand for land by subsistence farmers and the high demand for fuel wood and charcoal. As in South America, the often unclear - or even nonexistent – land ownership, and the widespread poverty, are contributing factors to deforestation.

Increased forestation

The forestation option includes an expansion of vegetation stocks and hence the pool of carbon kept in wood products. The main mechanisms include the planting of exotic species on degraded land; planting a mix of native species; restoration of degraded land and sick forests through human intervention; establishing and managing plantations on non-forests land; introduction of a more extensive use of the agroforestry method; and the managing of forests for sustainable harvest for bioenergy. All the mechanisms allow for a certain degree of harvesting for timber, but only through certified forest management practises. The advantage with the forestation option is that mechanisms are already in place, since it is eligible for project based Clean Development Mechanisms credits. The main disadvantages include the constraints on land for forestation in some regions and the sometimes long growth periods, since forests can take 10 to 15 years to grow. The abatement potential from forestation has a potential to absorb 3.5 GtCO₂/year by 2030, with more than 90% of this potential occurring on unused degraded forestry land in Africa and South America. Forestation in the OECD would absorb 0.3 GtCO₂e, Africa 0.9 and South America 2.3 GtCO₂e.