Vattenfall - Emissions, business-as-usual

Emissions in the forestry sector, business-as-usual

The forestry sector accounts for greenhouse gas emissions of 5.5 GtCO₂, which is 14% of the total emissions. This derives from gross deforestation and gross forestation. The current gross tropical deforestation causes emissions of about 8.2 GtCO₂ per year with the largest contributors being Indonesia, Brazil and the Congo. The gross forestation in the temperate regions currently absorbs approximately 2.7 GtCO₂ per year and hence net global forestry emissions equals 5.5. In a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the gradual reductions in deforestation in combination with the nearly constant rate of forestation are expected to reduce global forestry emissions by 2030 to 3.7 GtCO₂e per year, equal to 6% of total greenhouse gas emissions. The major drivers for deforestation vary across and within regions. In a general context, the low economic value of the subsistence farming in Africa, the medium economic value of commercial agriculture and herding in South America and, finally, the high economic value of the commercial timber extraction in Asia are identified as the main drivers. Furthermore, it is a risk that the climate change itself might accelerate deforestation. In the BAU scenario, deforestation is expected to decline by 0.8% yearly, down to a total of 6.4 GtCO₂e in 2030, with Asia accounting for the largest improvements. One main factor for a BAU decline in deforestation include economic development which might reduce dependence on forestry in Africa, Asia and South America. Economic developments might also slow down population growth and hence the pressure on the land will decline slightly. Another factor is the possible improvements in agricultural productivity that may result in a reduction in the pressure on the land to meet food requirements. The last major factor is the actual decline in forest cover, which can imply that deforestation will decrease.