The transport sector
The transport sector currently is responsible for 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Road transport stands for about 75% of these emissions, and air transport for about 13%. The remainder comes from marine and rail transports. Nearly all of the emissions is CO2 from petroleum combustion. Transport emissions are projected to increase with over 60% until 2030. New road vehicles, especially in developing countries, are the main driver behind this growth. Sufficiently strong policy support can potentially limit the growth to a little more than 10%. The main abatement opportunities are then:
- Fuel efficiency The adoption of fuel efficient technologies could bring down emissions by 1.5 Gt CO2e. Hybridization has significant potential for additional abatement, but due to high costs, adoption rates are modest
- Fuel switch The adoption of alternate fuels such as bioethanol and biodiesel can achieve abatement levels of 0.5 Gt CO2e, at zero or close to zero costs
- Demand reduction A combination of reduced kilometres travelled due to the higher CO2 price and smart transit (public transport, urban planning, and intelligent traffic management) could reduce CO2e emissions by 0.3 Gt
Additional potential exists if policies are pushed harder (e.g. smart transit or renewables fuels mandates) and/or innovation support advances key technologies (e.g. cheap batteries for hybrids and pure electric vehicles, advanced aircraft and biomass to liquids with CCS).
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