Vattenfall - Assumptions & uncertainties

Central assumptions & major uncertainties for the transport sector

The assumptions underlying the scenario of achieving the total of 0.3 GtCO₂e emissions abatement in the transport sector by 2030 over the business-as-usual scenario includes the following:

• Only abatement opportunities at a cost below €40/t CO₂e has been exhaustively explored. Some selected additional opportunities at a higher cost have been included if found relevant or if they are linked with lower cost opportunities (e.g. hybrids).
• The overall analysis excludes international bunkers.
• All new vehicles sold 2030 are fuel-efficient.
• 30% of all new vehicles that are sold are hybrids.
• The new aircrafts sold are based on fuel-efficient technologies.
• Adoption of biofuels is 23% of road transport fuel.
• The oil price is $40 a barrel and CO₂ taxes € 40/t, which will bring down fuel consumption to 8% below consumption without these measures¹. The oil price is a major uncertainty.
• Smart transit systems are implemented in most urbanization regions especially in developing economies as well as in the USA.
• Strong governmental support for initial expensive measures.
• High learning rates.

¹ The IEA Energy Outlook 2004 assumes oil prices of $29/barrel.