Vattenfall - Emission, business-as-usual

Emissions in the transport sector, business-as-usual

The transport sector is the third largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for emissions of 5.6 Gt CO₂e, or 14% of global emissions. Within the sector, road transport is the largest contributor with 75% of the sector’s emissions, followed by air transport at 13% while marine and rail account for the remaining 12%. Of the total emissions, nearly all are CO₂ emissions from petroleum combustion. An assessment by region and country level reveals that the USA and Canada stands for the largest contribution with 39% of the emissions in 2002, Europe OECD at 19%, Other industrials at 16%, Transition economies at 6%, China at 5% and Rest of the World at 15%. Emissions from the transport sector are projected to nearly double over the coming 30 years to 9.3 GtCO₂e. North America will contribute to a significant amount of this increase, although this region has among the lowest emission growth rates. The global increase is mainly driven by the increase in road vehicle sales in developing countries. Emissions from China and other developing economies are expected to grow the fastest. In a business-as-usual scenario, with an assumed oil price increase from $29 to $40 per barrel, the increase in emissions will be reduced by 1.4 GtCO₂e, mainly due to cost-effective power train technologies.