Vattenfall - Assumptions & uncertainties

Central assumptions & major uncertainties for the industry sector

Since only the cement and the steel sectors are analysed ‘bottom-up’, there is an underlying assumption present that says that steel and cement have roughly average abatement potentials. Without this assumption it is not possible to draw any conclusions about the potential for emission reductions in the rest of the industry sector.
BAU decarbonisation potential is determined based on the historical energy efficiency improvement rate in the cement and steel industries.
When it comes to clinker substitution in the steel industry, it is assumed that low cost industrial by-products meet approximately 67% of potential clinker substitution demand. It is also assumed that, by 2030, the worldwide clinker making process adopts current best practice, as demonstrated in Japan.
In the calculations about fuel substitution, there is an underlying assumption that 20 percent of total energy demand from the cement industry, after clinker substitution and fuel efficiency, are met by biomass in 2030. The assumption that coal will be the major fuel substituted by waste and/or biomass is also made.