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In 2002, the power sector emitted 24% of the global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). The emissions in the power sector come from combustion of fossil fuels for electricity production. If nothing is done to curb the GHG emissions, the growth in business-as-usual (BAU) emissions will be 79% from 2002 to 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). It would then add up to 29% of the world’s total GHG emissions 2030. The IEA forecast of power production and emissions from the power sector from 2004 has been used as a baseline scenario to 2030. Alternative technologies are compared to reference technologies, which are represented by a mix of coal and gas, proportional to the growth in BAU. The assessment of cost development of emerging renewable sources is based on learning curves assuming a specific cost reduction for each doubling of installed capacity. In a BAU scenario, electricity generation will increase with 2.6% per year. The fastest growing fuel source is gas, which is assumed to increase by 3.2% per year from 2004 to 2030. The growth in CO2 emissions from power generation and heat plants is expected to be 2% per year from 2004-2030.
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