Vattenfall - Transition economies

Transition economies

The region Transition economies includes the following countries: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Georgia, Gibraltar, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. These transition economies currently have greenhouse gas emissions of 3.4 Gt CO₂e (in 2002). The business-as-usual scenario implies an increase to 5.1 Gt CO₂e per year in 2030.

Abatement potential

The abatement potential for the region is estimated to about 1.6 Gt CO₂e. The largest potential, in relative terms, is found in the Buildings sector where the abatement potential is estimate to ca 80% of the business-as-usual emissions in 2030. This is followed by the Industry sector (ca 40%). The sectors Power, Transport and Agriculture all have a relative abatement potential of about 20%. No potential has been found in the Forestry sector.

Abatement cost

The average cost varies substantially between the sectors. Within Buildings and Transport there is a significant potential of negative cost abatement opportunities. Looking only at the abatement potential at a cost below € 40/tonne CO₂e, the average abatement cost in these two sectors are € -120/tonne CO₂e in Buildings and € -29/tonne CO₂e in Transport. Virtually all of the potential within these sectors come at a zero or negative cost. The other sectors have a cost of € 13/tonne CO₂e in Agriculture, € 14/tonne CO₂e in the Power sector and € 22/tonne CO₂e in the Industry sector. The average cost across all sectors turns out to be negative due to the significant amount of negative cost opportunities in the Buildings and Transport sector. A more conservative estimate, valuing the negative cost opportunities at zero, would result in an average abatement cost of about € 11/tonne CO₂e in the transition economies.