China
The region China includes both the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong. This region currently has greenhouse gas emissions of 5.2 Gt CO2e (in 2002). The business-as-usual scenario implies an increase to 10.4 Gt CO2e per year in 2030.
Abatement potential
China’s abatement potential is estimated to 4.6 Gt CO2e in 2030. The largest potential, in relative terms, is found in the Buildings sector where virtually all of the direct greenhouse gas emissions can be eliminated. This is followed by the Industry sector (ca 40% of business-as-usual emissions). The sectors Power, Transport and Agriculture all have a relative abatement potential of about 20%. No potential has been found in the Forestry sector.
Abatement cost
The average cost varies substantially between the sectors. Within Buildings and Transport there is a significant potential of negative cost abatement opportunities. Looking only at the abatement potential at a cost below € 40/tonne CO2e, the average abatement cost in these two sectors are € -45/tonne CO2e in Buildings and € -4/tonne CO2e in Transport. Virtually all of the potential within these sectors come at a zero or negative cost. The other sectors have a cost of
€ 13/tonne CO2e in Agriculture, € 23/tonne CO2e in the Industry sector and ca
€ 28/tonne CO2e in the Power sector.
The average cost across all sectors is about € 11/tonne CO2e if the negative cost abatement opportunities are valued ‘at cost’. A more conservative estimate, valuing the negative cost opportunities at zero, would result in an average abatement cost of € 19/tonne CO2e in China.
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