Mapping of abatement potential
An introduction to the mapping initiative
In terms of greenhouse gas abatement, there is no complete consensus as to exactly what target the world should aim for. There are both scientific uncertainties related to climate sensitivity and different views on policy. The European Union has set a goal to limit the average global temperature increase to a maximum of 2ºC. The risks of severe consequences seem to increase significantly as the temperature increases. Even if a 2ºC target is accepted, science does not give a definitive answer on neither how large the emissions of greenhouse gases can be, nor what level of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere that can ultimately be accepted. The work carried out to identify the abatement potential and cost is not related to any specific target. As a starting point however, we have assumed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere need to be stabilzed at 450 ppm CO2e compared to the pre-industrial level of about 280 ppm CO2e. This implies that a maximum of 31 Gigatonne (Gt) of CO2e emissions can be ‘allowed’ in 2030, and a range of ±7 Gt around this level would cover the majority of scientific estimates. The business-as-usual scenario for 2030 is based on actual emissions in 2002 and an estimated business-as-usual growth of emissions from 2002-2030. The business-as-usual growth takes into account a decarbonisation rate that is broadly consistent with historical data. The historical decarbonisation rate is 1.2 per cent and the estimated business-as-usual decarbonisation rate for the period 2002-2030 is 1.4 per cent. This gives us a business-as-usual level of emissions of close to 60 Gt in 2030. Compared with the target around 30 Gt CO2e, substantial reductions must be achieved in 2030 in order to reach the target set by the European Union.
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