Vattenfall - Assumptions

Assumptions

Behind the analysis lie a number of important assumptions. The scenarios should not be seen as a Vattenfall forecast but as a presentation of possibilities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions given some optimistic, but still realistic, assumptions concerning technology development and supportive energy policies. There are considerable uncertainties when it comes to future development of energy supply, prices and technology. The assumptions of technology development have deliberately been biased somewhat towards the optimistic side. A more detailed account of central assumptions used, and major uncertainties to be aware of, can be found in the section for each sector, as well as in the additional material available to download. There are several sources of uncertainty.

• Climate uncertainty: There is uncertainty both on the CO₂ concentration level given the emission development, and on the temperature change at different CO₂ concentration levels.
• Emissions data: Current emission levels are uncertain due to lack of accurate measurements. This is particularly the case for agriculture/waste and forestry.
• Assessment of the abatement potential: The technological potential and the penetration of different technologies are uncertain.
• Development of abatement cost: The technological development and the development of costs are uncertain in several sectors. This depends both on how fast costs for particular technologies decrease but also on the cost under the business-as-usual scenario, which depends on for instance energy prices.
• The overall rate of innovation in the economy is uncertain. This will affect the development of new technologies.
• Political constraints: Different policies can both promote low-emission technologies and hinder them. This is clearly the case within most sectors.