Chapter 6 - An open society with closed loops

Perhaps economic activity of a different character will have emerged by 2109. With all of the world’s population living to a satisfactory material standard, perhaps consumption of physical goods, demand for physical movement, and even consumption of calories has begun to decline on a per-person basis, with people increasingly valuing other kinds of experiences.

Perhaps the systems that produce those goods have fundamentally changed. The guiding principle of production is deep efficiency, with more and more economic activities approaching “closed loop” designs, minimising material inputs, maximising reuse and recycling essentially everything. Closed-loop thinking has shortened supply chains as the sites of production, distribution, use, reproduction and reuse converge.

Less and less energy and fewer natural resources are consumed, but innovative new systems continue to create value and improve welfare.

Perhaps our homes and offices have become not just efficient – but self-sufficient, absorbing and deflecting the sun, air, water, and body heat running through them so effectively as to require no energy for heating and cooling, and very little for light.

Perhaps energy systems have also begun to close their loops, as the technologies we only imagine today have become reality.

Perhaps this revolution in clean electricity has powered the electrification of many industrial processes and forms of transportation.

Perhaps energy storage technology – in the form of hydrogen fuel cells – provides a complementary solution to electric vehicles.

Fossil fuels have become a part of history – not because they have run out, or become too expensive in absolute terms, but because they have become economically unattractive and impractical compared to the options available. This once dominant input to human activity is offset by the emergence of a new, complementary sector: carbon sinks.

This is one possible world we could see in 100 years. What we have imagined is nothing less than another industrial revolution.
Many of the technologies needed to shape the 1-tonne society have yet to be developed or perfected. Others are expensive or impractical in current forms. While society must find a way to “push” these technologies, it must do so in an open way that does not pick winners and discriminate against unforeseen breakthroughs.

Without scarcity there is no innovation. Access to raw materials is naturally limited, but these limitations won’t be significant enough to drive the needed emissions reductions. Steering mechanisms must add costs and restrictions sufficient to drive this change.